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According to a report by the US Department of Agriculture, after independently resuming the operation of its main seaports on the Black Sea, Ukraine is projected to increase grain exports by the end of the 2023-24 marketing year.
Global agricultural information network FAS shows that after an initial drop following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023, total grain exports rose from 2 million tonnes in September 2023 to 5.2 million tonnes in December. In the weeks following its withdrawal from the United Nations-brokered grain export agreement, Russia bombed grain infrastructure in Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and on the Danube River. These attacks have diminished in recent months.
To counter the moves of Russia, which invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine has developed a new export corridor in the Black Sea, following the territorial waters of neighboring countries to the Bosphorus Strait. Ukrainian ships then enter Ukrainian territorial waters from Romanian waters near the mouth of the Danube River.
In the 2023-24 season, which will last from July to June, FAS forecasts an 8% increase in corn exports year-on-year to 29.2 million tons, a 3% increase in wheat exports to 17.7 million tons, a 22% increase in barley exports to 3.3 million tons, and an almost 10-fold increase in rye exports to 170,000 tons.
“Based on the high export rates in December 2023, if Ukraine maintains average monthly exports at around 4 million tonnes for all grains combined for the remainder of the marketing year, it will export the vast majority of the crop, leaving an estimated total of 5 million tonnes for all grains remaining in ending stocks for 2023-24,” the FAS said.
It was also noted that investment and efficiency in the Danube River export routes and the transshipment capacity of the Port of Constanta in Romania “continue to grow, providing additional capacity to support export levels. The increased export estimates assume no serious losses from attacks on port infrastructure and arriving and departing vessels.”
FAS also forecasts growth in Ukraine's main grain crop production year-on-year. It forecasts wheat production to increase by 11% to 22.5 million tonnes in 2023-24. Corn production is expected to increase by almost 17% to 30.5 million tonnes, while barley production is set at 5.9 million tonnes, up 2% from 2022-23.