French intelligence estimates that up to 100,000 people could participate in some form of the "Block Everything" movement on Wednesday, September 10. This figure, although highly imprecise, was calculated based on the turnout at preparatory general assemblies held across France throughout the summer and, most intensely, in the last two weeks.
According to intelligence, the strength of the protest movement will depend in part on how events unfold on September 8 in the National Assembly, where Prime Minister François Bayrou intends to hold a vote of confidence. "If the government falls, some of those planning to participate may be demobilized, but the most politicized will emerge inspired," an Interior Ministry spokesperson stated.
While the scale of the mobilization remains unclear, its political focus is clear: the "Block Everything" movement, initially unaffiliated, has largely come under the leadership of the radical left. According to intelligence agencies, the general assemblies are led by La France Insoumise (LFI) and Nouveau Parti Anticapitaliste (NPA), which also identified trade unionists (primarily from the CGT and Solidaires), pro-Palestinian activists, members of Extinction Rebellion, and Soulèvements de la Terre (a climate activist collective). The strongest protest sentiments are observed in traditional strongholds of the left and radical left, particularly in the regions of Nantes, Rennes, Toulouse, Lyon, and Bordeaux.